It appears likely that the demand for funding in Round 10 will be about the same as it was in Round 9. The Global Fund has released preliminary figures indicating that the total two-year cost for all Round 10 applications amounts to $4.36 billion. This is prior to the screening process, which determines which proposals are eligible for consideration, and prior to review by the Technical Review Panel (TRP), which will determine which of the "screened in" proposals are recommended to the Board for funding. (The screening process also includes clarifications of the financial request, which could also affect the final total.)
In Rounds 9 and 8, the total two-year costs at this stage were, respectively, $4.88 billion and $5.79 billion. Round 8 was the largest round ever.
HIV/AIDS proposals constitute 63% of the total Round 10 demand, with TB and malaria proposals accounting for, respectively, 19% and 18%. In Rounds 9 and 8, the percentage cost split among HIV / TB / malaria proposals, after screening, was, respectively, 49 / 24 / 27 and 50 / 17 / 33.
In Round 9, proposals recommended for funding by the TRP represented 46% of the total request for funding. Extrapolating this to Round 10 would suggest that the costs of all proposals recommended for funding will be about $2.0 billion. This is without accounting for the fact that some Round 10 applications may be deemed ineligible; however, this is not likely to make a significant difference to the total.
In Round 9, the total two-year cost of proposals approved for funding was $2.21 billion. However, due to limited resources, the Global Fund imposed a 10% reduction, on average, across all proposal budgets, bringing the cost down to $1.99 billion.
The final cost of Round 10 will not be known until the screening process is completed and the TRP makes its recommendations to the Board. However, if past experience is a guide, there will not likely be sufficient funds available for the Board to immediately approve all Round 10 proposals recommended for funding by the TRP. In both Rounds 8 and 9, the Board deferred formal approval of some of the TRP-recommended proposals until more funds became available.
Further, it is not clear yet how much money will be raised in the donor replenishment process currently underway for the years 2011-2013. Money for Round 10 will come primarily from these donations. (See next article.)